Bank Indonesia: Indonesia's Economy Only Increases by a Few 5.1 Percent in 2018

Channel Rakyat. Bank Indonesia (BI) is reluctant to grapple with projecting 2018 economic growth. The monetary authority estimates that Indonesia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) throughout 2018 will grow by 5.1%.


"Economic growth is still in the range of 5.1% -2.2%. BI estimates around 5.1% for this year," said Dody Budi Waluyo, BI Deputy Governor when he was keynote speaker replacing Perry Warjiyo at the Core Economic Outlook event Wednesday (11/21/2018).


Just to remind, Indonesia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2018 was at 5.06%. Then growth grew faster to 5.27% in the second quarter, and 5.17% in the third quarter.


In comparison, the figure is weaker than in the fourth quarter of 2017 which recorded economic growth of 5.19%.


The government previously set a growth target of 5.4% at the end of 2018. However, previously, Minister Sri Mulyani also felt more realistic in setting economic growth from 5.1 to 5.2 percent.


Nevertheless, Dody asked to wait for the results of the BI meeting at the end of November. According to him, domestic demand will be the key to the country's economic growth.


Investment realization in the third quarter of 2018 was recorded at Rp 173.8 trillion, down 1.6% on month on month (mom), also down 20.2% year on year (yoy).


While household consumption in the third quarter of 2018 grew 5.01%. This figure is higher than the same period in 2017 which was 4.93%. Consumption also continues to be driven by infrastructure spending by the government.


In terms of banking, lending can still grow towards 12%. This shows the magnitude of the transmission of monetary policy so as to make the economy grow.


The level of trust of producers is also considered good. Dody explained, banks did not raise their lending rates, even though investment interest rates and third party funds (DPK) had increased.


Banking and corporate efficiency can be seen from the thinness of pass-through from the side of the exchange rate to the business world. Thus, the increase in costs does not need to be charged to price increases at the consumer level.


"Pass-through to production costs is maintained," he explained.


While from a global perspective, Indonesia's projected economic growth is stagnant in line with the slowing global economic growth.


This is due to the trade war that occurred between the United States and China, as well as waiting for Europe to normalize interest rates.


"Even though the current external trend is positively awaiting US-China trade policy discussions," said Dody.

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